What was said
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”Watch at 10:28It Started: America’s Bond Market Is Secretly Collapsing
Fed policy rate
As of Nov 4, 2026, Callsight counts 106 calls about the Fed policy rate that tracked channels made themselves, checked against the upper end of the federal funds target range on FRED. At one year: 48 correct, 8 incorrect, 2 still open. The other 48 have no one-year verdict; each call's card says why.
Own predictions
106
35 up · 32 down
Correct / incorrect after 1 year
48 Correct 8 Incorrect
plus 0 partly correct and 0 within band. Every call counted, repeats included.
Still open
2
Windows not yet closed
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. Grey bands are recessions.
Latest predictions about Fed policy rate
208 predictions in all, newest first: 106 own, 102 relaying someone else's forecast (not scored).
What was said
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”Watch at 15:23BREAKING: The FED Cancels ALL Rate Cuts - Market Selloff Has Begun!
What was said
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”Watch at 14:43How I’m Preparing For The “Supercycle”
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable
Not verifiable: no direction stated. The claim does not say whether the policy rate will be cut or raised.
30 days
Not verifiable
90 days
Not verifiable
180 days
Not verifiable
1 year
Not verifiable
What was said
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”Watch at 16:08How The US Is Quietly Erasing The $39 Trillion National Debt
What happenedafter 90 days
Incorrect so far · 90 days
Reading when said
3.75%
Jun 1, 2026
Reading at close
3.75%
Aug 30, 2026
Change
0.00 pp
The policy rate was 3.75% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Aug 30, 2026, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.
30 days
Incorrect
90 days
Incorrect
180 days
Pending
1 year
Pending
What was said
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”Watch at 24:26Every Bond Market In The World Is Breaking
What was said
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”Watch at 1:54Every Bond Market In The World Is Breaking
What was said
“I'm definitely not betting on lower interest rates coming anytime soon, and I'm definitely not over-leveraging on anything that's dependent on interest rates coming down anytime in the next 12 months.”Watch at 15:11The New Fed Chair's Plan To Reset The Entire Money System (Nobody Is Ready)
Predictiona call with no clear direction
What happened
Not scored
The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.
What was said
“anyone who's waiting around for cheap money to come back is probably going to be waiting for a lot longer than expected.”Watch at 14:12The New Fed Chair's Plan To Reset The Entire Money System (Nobody Is Ready)
Predictiona call with no clear direction
What happened
Not scored
The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.
Earlier calls
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market's beginning to price in the likelihood that Kevin Warsh is going to raise interest rates as his first policy move, mainly because inflation's growing out of control.”
May 21, 2026
Relayed
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“I'm definitely not betting on lower interest rates coming anytime soon, and I'm definitely not over-leveraging on anything that's dependent on interest rates coming down anytime in the next 12 months.”
May 21, 2026
Not scored
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“That's why I tend to think that anyone who's waiting around for cheap money to come back is probably going to be waiting for a lot longer than expected.”
May 21, 2026
Not scored
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market's beginning to price in the likelihood that Kevin Warsh is going to raise interest rates as his first policy move, mainly because inflation's growing out of control.”
May 21, 2026
Relayed
Coin Bureau, relaying CME FedWatch: Fed policy rate — no direction stated
“CME FedWatch is now pricing a roughly 84 to 95% probability that rates stay on hold through the end of 2026. There is now a non-trivial probability of a rate hike in early 2027.”
May 10, 2026
Relayed
Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“With futures contracts currently showing a 52% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year,”
Apr 9, 2026
Relayed
Coin Bureau, relaying Goldman Sachs: Fed policy rate — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
“the European Central Bank is facing an even worse scenario with Goldman Sachs now projecting they will be forced to hike rates by 25 basis points in both April and June.”
Mar 30, 2026
Relayed
Graham StephanFed policy rate— no direction stated
“This means we're probably not going to see interest rate cuts for quite some time.”
Mar 18, 2026 · after 1 year
Not verifiable
Graham StephanFed policy rate— no direction stated
“we're probably not going to see any more rate cuts until either the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, starts his term, or we have an economic collapse that demands a rate cut as soon as possible.”
Mar 18, 2026 · after 1 year
Not verifiable
Coin Bureaua call under review
“I think yeah, not much chance for a rate cut coming. No chance.”
Mar 2, 2026
Not scored
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“my personal take is that there is no way he's not going to lower interest rates and basically do what Trump tells him to do.”
Feb 2, 2026 · after 180 days
Incorrect so far · 180 days
Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall
“Right now, the market is pricing in the Federal Reserve resuming rate cuts around June 2026.”
Jan 29, 2026
Relayed
Graham StephanFed policy rate— no direction stated
“the Federal Reserve decided not to lower interest rates, at least through the end of March.”
Jan 28, 2026 · after 1 year
Not verifiable
Graham Stephana call with no clear direction
“as of a few hours ago, the Federal Reserve decided not to lower interest rates for the foreseeable future.”
Jan 28, 2026
Not scored
Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall
“We've had two consecutive rate cuts and the market is still pricing in a third for the December meeting.”
Nov 5, 2025
Relayed
Coin BureauFed policy ratewill fall
“They cut rates back in September and are expected to deliver at least two more cuts by the end of 2025.”
Oct 23, 2025 · after 1 year
Correct
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“That's why I wouldn't be surprised if we see another small rate cut when they meet in October and maybe another one when they meet in December.”
Sep 17, 2025 · after 1 year
Correct
Graham Stephan, relaying Federal Reserve: Fed policy rate will fall
“And now the Federal Reserve has made it clear that they expect a cut by another 50 basis points by the end of the year due to growing job uncertainty.”
Sep 17, 2025
Relayed
Coin BureauFed policy ratewill fall
“It's pretty much guaranteed in terms of probabilities 90% or so that the market thinks we're going to have a rate cut in September.”
Sep 1, 2025
Not scored
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“And it does look as though he's hinting at a rate cut as soon as September comes.”
Aug 22, 2025 · after 1 year
Correct
Graham Stephana call under review
“All of this now gives us the chance of an almost 90% certainty of a rate cut on September 17th.”
Aug 22, 2025
Not scored
Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall
“On the macro front, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, potentially giving markets an extra boost.”
Aug 16, 2025
Relayed
Showing the newest 30 of 208.
Blog
Andrei Jikh's Bitcoin predictions, and what happened
Andrei Jikh's own Bitcoin, S&P 500 and Fed calls, each linked to the second it was said and checked from 30 days to 5 years. Sample sizes shown.
Questions people ask
What have finance YouTubers predicted about the Fed policy rate?
As of Nov 4, 2026, Callsight counts 106 calls about the Fed policy rate that tracked channels made themselves, checked against the upper end of the federal funds target range on FRED. At one year: 48 correct, 8 incorrect, 2 still open. The other 48 have no one-year verdict; each call's card says why.
How is a call about the Fed policy rate checked?
Against the upper end of the federal funds target range on FRED, using each value as it was first published rather than later revisions, at 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, by fixed rules that are the same for every channel.
Is this investment advice?
No. This is a record of what people said in public and what happened next. Nothing here tells you to buy or sell anything.
Every count on this page includes repeats: a call made again in a later video counts again, so the counts can differ from a channel's record, which counts each distinct call once.