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Joseph Carlson: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Sep 19, 2024, at 9:18 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I think he's certainly correct about more interest rates coming in the future”
Watch at 9:18I Just Broke A New Record
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

5%

Sep 19, 2024

Reading at close

4.25%

Sep 19, 2025

Change

−0.75 pp

The policy rate was 5.00% at the start of the window and 4.25% on Sep 19, 2025, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202120222023202420252026Said on Sep 19, 2024
−2%0%2%4%6%2021202320242026Said on Sep 19, 2024

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5%5%Oct 19, 20240.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct5%4.75%Dec 18, 2024−0.25 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct5%4.5%Mar 18, 2025−0.50 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct5%4.25%Sep 19, 2025−0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Sep 19, 2027——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Sep 18, 2029——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.00% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Oct 19, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.00% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Dec 18, 2024, a net change of −0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.00% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Mar 18, 2025, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.00% at the start of the window and 4.25% on Sep 19, 2025, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 19, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 18, 2029.

What was said around it

we say we you know the the the neutral fed funds is 2.9% and you know why aren't we closer we're now thinking about that gap which is exactly what I talked about a month ago Jeremy seagull believes that this is the best news the FED could deliver that they're not worrying about the gradual approach of slowly lowering interest rates down to this target he says mind the gap that there's a large gap between where we are now and neutral neutral from the FED standpoint is 2.9% we're currently around 4.7% so we have a ways to go to get to that neutral stance and I think he's certainly correct about more interest rates coming in the future now of course whenever the FED is on a path of cutting interest rates like this investors are not only concerned about combating the growth and unemployment they're also concerned about reigniting inflation we have a bit of shell shock from the level of inflation we just went through and the last thing this country needs is to reignite inflation again inflation shows any signs of picking up and the FED says hold off we're not going to do anything else anymore that's correct but I don't see any sign of inflation picking up I mean I took a look at the markets

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

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Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed