“the W's economists expect interest rates to fall in the EU and stay roughly where they are in the US and elsewhere”Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Fed policy rate — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures
Said on Jun 30, 2024, at 12:40 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
of them are outright abandoning it as most of you will know ESG is an investment ideology pioneered by asset managers like Black Rock and well it's a rabbit hole all of its own more about ESG in the description moving on now after summarizing some other findings from surveys of Executives the W's economists pivot to another Hot Topic and that's fiscal and monetary policy as some of you will know fiscal policy involves government spending and Taxation whereas monetary policy involves central banks and interest rates as I mentioned earlier the W's economists expect interest rates to fall in the EU and stay roughly where they are in the US and elsewhere the reason why I noted it as being surprising is because the monetary policies of central banks had been synchronized up until now they all just followed the fed this is just because if central banks eased while the Fed was tightening they would risk ending up like Japan where the Yen lost over 40% of its value mainly due to interest rate differentials unfortunately for the EU this could happen to the euro because the ECB can't afford to keep rates higher for longer oddly enough the Ws economists expect more constrained fiscal policy because
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
More on Fed policy rate
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026