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Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Mar 19, 2025, at 14:44 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“I bet we probably see two small rate cuts at some point this year”
Watch at 14:44BREAKING: Federal Reserve Freezes Rates, Downplays Recession, Market Skyrockets!
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallby Dec 31, 2025
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.5%

Mar 19, 2025

Reading at close

3.75%

Mar 19, 2026

Change

−0.75 pp

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Mar 19, 2026, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%202220232023202420252026Said on Mar 19, 2025
0%2%4%6%2022202320252026Said on Mar 19, 2025

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect4.5%4.5%Apr 18, 20250.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect4.5%4.5%Jun 17, 20250.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect4.5%4.5%Sep 15, 20250.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct4.5%3.75%Mar 19, 2026−0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Mar 18, 2028——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Mar 18, 2030——
Stated deadlineR-FED v4Correct4.5%3.75%Dec 31, 2025−0.75 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Apr 18, 2025, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jun 17, 2025, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Sep 15, 2025, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Mar 19, 2026, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 18, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 18, 2030.

Why: Stated deadline

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Dec 31, 2025, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

anything that gets proposed is probably going to be watered down through Congress a lot of things get over promised tax breaks are probably going to be a lot more modest than a lot of people expect and tariff threats are probably just going to be a back and forth negotiation until eventually everything gets resolved sure it's going to be a bumpy ride in the process but welcome to the entire economy where there's always something to worry about that's why I'm just continuing to dollar cost average into the markets on a regular basis regardless of where it trades I bet we probably see two small rate cuts at some point this year and if you're getting spooked by all the volatility it's probably best just don't check stick with the plan is normal and no matter what smash the like button and subscribe if you haven't done that already so thanks so much for watching I really appreciate it also big thank you again to cook Unity for sponsoring this video their information is down below in the description thank you so much for watching and until next time

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed