“the stock market thinks he'll start lowering interest rates as early as November”Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall
Said on May 22, 2023, at 13:27 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
misunderstand what inflation actually is supposed to represent that just means that inflation will continue to put a strain on people's savings their credit card debt and the people that it'll hurt the most are those without an emergency fund and people without a cash cushion and that ultimately leads us to the ultimate question of what will Papa Jerome Powell do will he get us out of that future recession by low lowering interest rates or will he keep those interest rates High to try to get rid of the inflation AKA slowed down the rate of price expansion now the stock market thinks he'll start lowering interest rates as early as November and believe it or not data actually kind of supports that conclusion dating back to the 1950s the average amount of time the Federal Reserve started to cut rates after their final rate increase was only just two months now we've already seen our last interest rate increase in May of this year so sometime later this year we might see interest rates go down the FED is telling us that won't happen but data shows that it actually might now if you're in the market to buy something you might get an opportunity to get that lower rate later this year personally
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
More on Fed policy rate
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026