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Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Dec 14, 2022, at 8:52 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“as of right now it's largely expected that the federal funds rate will Peak around five percent meaning are most likely out outcome is another 25 to 50 basis point rate hike in February of 2023 one more in March”
Watch at 8:52THE FED JUST CRUSHED THE MARKET | Urgent Changes Explained
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4%

Dec 14, 2022

Reading at close

5.5%

Dec 14, 2023

Change

+1.50 pp

The policy rate was 4.00% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Dec 14, 2023, a net change of +1.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202021202220232024Said on Dec 14, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202120222024Said on Dec 14, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct4%4.5%Jan 13, 2023+0.50 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct4%4.75%Mar 14, 2023+0.75 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct4%5.25%Jun 12, 2023+1.25 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct4%5.5%Dec 14, 2023+1.50 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct4%3.75%Dec 13, 2025−0.25 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Dec 13, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 4.00% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jan 13, 2023, a net change of +0.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 4.00% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Mar 14, 2023, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 4.00% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jun 12, 2023, a net change of +1.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 125 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 4.00% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Dec 14, 2023, a net change of +1.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 4.00% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Dec 13, 2025, a net change of −0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 13, 2027.

What was said around it

likely to have any abrupt 75 basis point rate hikes and smaller rate increases will allow us to still fight inflation without losing everybody money ultimately though they're still just as committed to fighting inflation and while the stock market was pricing in the chance of this soon coming to an end it's looking as though 2023 is probably going to be a lot more of the same will they try to do their best to Stamp Out inflation as much as possible and finally in terms of our future rate hikes as of right now it's largely expected that the federal funds rate will Peak around five percent meaning are most likely out outcome is another 25 to 50 basis point rate hike in February of 2023 one more in March and then potentially make it be the pivotal moment that we've all been waiting for where we either see a pause or even a decline for the first time in more than a year now a lot could change between now and then but by may it should become apparent if we're seeing a meaningful decline in inflation and if wages continue to drop then there's absolutely the argument that they could begin to decrease interest rates in a way without spiking back up inflation of course there's also the chance that

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed