Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Feb 14, 2022, at 12:18 in the video.

What was saidFeb 14, 2022

@coinbureau

“this inflation combined with low interest rates has incentivized consumers in the united states to borrow more than ever before causing consumer debt to reach over 15 trillion dollars in 2021 this is bad news because the federal reserve is expected to begin raising interest rates in the coming weeks in an attempt to tame inflation”

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PredictionFed policy ratewill riseby Mar 7, 2022

What happenedafter 1 year

Correct

Reading when said

0.25%

Feb 14, 2022

Reading at close

4.75%

Feb 14, 2023

Change

+4.50 pp

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Feb 14, 2023, a net change of +4.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 450 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-FED v4	Incorrect	0.25%	0.25%Mar 16, 2022	0.00 pp	—
90 daysR-FED v4	Correct	0.25%	1%May 15, 2022	+0.75 pp	—
180 daysR-FED v4	Correct	0.25%	2.5%Aug 13, 2022	+2.25 pp	—
1 yearR-FED v4	Correct	0.25%	4.75%Feb 14, 2023	+4.50 pp	—
3 yearsR-FED v4	Correct	0.25%	4.5%Feb 13, 2025	+4.25 pp	—
5 yearsR-FED v4	Pending	—	—Feb 13, 2027	—	—
Stated deadlineR-FED v4	Incorrect	0.25%	0.25%Mar 7, 2022	0.00 pp	—

Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Mar 16, 2022, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 1.00% on May 15, 2022, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Aug 13, 2022, a net change of +2.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 225 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Feb 13, 2025, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 525 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 13, 2027.

Why: Stated deadline

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Mar 7, 2022, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

how the cpi is measured you'll know that official inflation statistics are misleading to say the least unofficial inflation statistics suggest that inflation is running even hotter at 15 and by unofficial i mean the 1980s cpi measurement this inflation is due to a combination of money printing by the federal reserve in response to pandemic restrictions as well as supply chain problems caused by pandemic restrictions notice a pattern this inflation combined with low interest rates has incentivized consumers in the united states to borrow more than ever before causing consumer debt to reach over 15 trillion dollars in 2021 this is bad news because the federal reserve is expected to begin raising interest rates in the coming weeks in an attempt to tame inflation this means this 15 trillion dollars of debt is going to become a lot more expensive to pay off and we could even see some individuals and institutions start to default on debt payments they can't afford if that happens assets will be sold to cover the costs of servicing that debt and this will lead to a market crash across the board history suggests that the federal reserve will reverse course and reduce interest rates when the markets

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

The window it was checked over

Result at every window

What was said around it

More on Fed policy rate