“the market currently believes that the Federal Reserve is 82% likely to implement another 75 basis point rate hike on September 21st,”Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
Said on Sep 14, 2022, at 6:52 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
interest rates that get passed back on to the customer. Now, even though some of these rate hikes have already been priced in, the Federal Reserve recently came on record to say that while higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation, which basically means interest rates are going higher and there's nothing you could do about it. As of the time I'm making this video, the market currently believes that the Federal Reserve is 82% likely to implement another 75 basis point rate hike on September 21st, meaning we could soon see the highest interest rates since 2007. This comes as they continue to battle inflation that's substantially above their 2% target, growth has not slowed down, and demand is still there. Even though this is a lagging indicator, the Federal Reserve does have to get ahead of these price increases, and that will absolutely have an effect on what happens to the housing market. So, in terms of what this means for you in the market, here's what you need to be made aware of. One, when sellers can't get the price
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More on Fed policy rate
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026