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Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Jun 10, 2022, at 7:51 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“higher inflation readings increase the likelihood of a larger rate hike when the FED meets in June July September November and December”
Watch at 7:51The FED Just Crashed The Market | DO THIS NOW
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

1%

Jun 10, 2022

Reading at close

5.25%

Jun 10, 2023

Change

+4.25 pp

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jun 10, 2023, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 425 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202021202220222023Said on Jun 10, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202020222023Said on Jun 10, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct1%1.75%Jul 10, 2022+0.75 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct1%2.5%Sep 8, 2022+1.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct1%4%Dec 7, 2022+3.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct1%5.25%Jun 10, 2023+4.25 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct1%4.5%Jun 9, 2025+3.50 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Jun 9, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 1.75% on Jul 10, 2022, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Sep 8, 2022, a net change of +1.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Dec 7, 2022, a net change of +3.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 300 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jun 10, 2023, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 425 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jun 9, 2025, a net change of +3.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 450 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 9, 2027.

What was said around it

single week and as a way to give back they want to invest in you by giving you a free stock worth all the way up to a thousand dollars just by signing up and making a deposit with the link in the description and using the code gram so if you want to build your portfolio and start investing in stocks ETFs and crypto today the link is down below in the description and now with that said let's get back to the video all right now as far as what's going on today the biggest concern in terms of you your money and the stock market is that higher inflation readings increase the likelihood of a larger rate hike when the FED meets in June July September November and December and that scene is a negative for stock values as borrowing gets more expensive see prior to now Traders were pricing in just a 3.6 chance of a 75 basis point rate hike in June but after this report they see a 13 chance of that coming in just the next few days another report shows the chance of the 75 basis point rate hike has increased to 50 percent in the following month of July which is substantially higher than the 50 basis point rate hike that we were hoping for in other words the one thing the market absolutely hates is uncertainty

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed