What was said
“by November the stock market is pricing in a 70 chance that the FED will finally decrease and by December the odds go up to a massive 90 chance”Watch at 9:49The Stock Market Is About To Flip
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall
Said on Jun 12, 2023, at 9:49 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
will stay exactly the same 5 to 5.25 and on the opposite end it shows us a 30 chance that the new rate will fall between 5.25 and five and a half percent so what that tells us is that there's a one in three chance right now that this week the Federal Reserve will raise their interest rates by a quarter percent but looking out ahead we can look at interest rate Futures to get an idea of when the FED might start to lower their interest rates in July for example the market expects no changes and the same thing in September but by November the stock market is pricing in a 70 chance that the FED will finally decrease and by December the odds go up to a massive 90 chance now this does not mean that this is exactly what will happen because no one knows that's what the stock market is pricing in today based on all the data that we have but at the end of the day no one knows if the FED will pause and if this pause will be a temporary thing or if it's going to be a permanent thing either way if the Federal Reserve increases rates this week the stock market is not going to like that because that's not what it's predicting but if the FED does pause and it pauses at least for the next 12 months then
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
More on Fed policy rate
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Sep 3, 2026
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Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Relayed
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Not verifiable
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Incorrect so far · 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Relayed
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026
Relayed