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Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Sep 24, 2021, at 8:26 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“by fall of next year, the stimulus would be over and interest rates would start to go back up.”
Watch at 8:26Why The Market Hasn't Crashed Yet
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseby Dec 31, 2022
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

0.25%

Sep 24, 2021

Reading at close

3.25%

Sep 24, 2022

Change

+3.00 pp

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 3.25% on Sep 24, 2022, a net change of +3.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 300 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−1%0%1%2%3%4%5%201820192020202120222023Said on Sep 24, 2021
−2%0%2%4%6%2018202020212023Said on Sep 24, 2021

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Oct 24, 20210.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Dec 23, 20210.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct0.25%0.5%Mar 23, 2022+0.25 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct0.25%3.25%Sep 24, 2022+3.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct0.25%5%Sep 23, 2024+4.75 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Correct0.25%4%Sep 23, 2026+3.75 pp—
Stated deadlineR-FED v4Correct0.25%4.5%Dec 31, 2022+4.25 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Oct 24, 2021, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Dec 23, 2021, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.50% on Mar 23, 2022, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 3.25% on Sep 24, 2022, a net change of +3.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 300 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Sep 23, 2024, a net change of +4.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 525 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Sep 23, 2026, a net change of +3.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 525 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: Stated deadline

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Dec 31, 2022, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 425 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

mortgage back securities to keep interest rates near record lows. But if they do that for too long, then inflation stays high, our money loses value, and people go into a frenzy. So, they've openly laid out their road map in terms of what they expect to happen so the market doesn't have a knee-jerk reaction to not getting their sweet, sweet money. And this is what is in that plan. This week, the Fed said that they would have a discussion towards the end of the year of reducing their stimulus by $15 billion a month beginning in 2022. And that would mean by fall of next year, the stimulus would be over and interest rates would start to go back up. The expectation here is that this would be done extremely carefully. And if there are any unexpected consequences, that would be appropriately dealt with. So overall, the market is going up because it knows what to expect. Now, obviously, nobody could predict what's going to unfold in the short term, and anything could happen. But still, study after study continues to show the exact same thing. If you have the cash, it's better to throw it all in the markets all at once than wait to invest 75% of the time. Now, even though statistically lumpsum investing

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed