What was said
“It's pretty much guaranteed in terms of probabilities 90% or
so that the market thinks we're going to have a rate cut in September.”Watch at 14:33Crypto Market Analysis: Bitcoin Whales, WLFI Launch & September Trends Explained
Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will fall
Said on Sep 1, 2025, at 14:33 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedNot scored under the published method.
What was said around it
doom and gloom. We're going to pump some opium into this balloon now. Um because there are a few factors that could make this a green September. Nothing is set in stone. This time is different. This time this time could be different. Um let's see. But there are a few things to look out for this month. And the first thing we need to talk about is one that's been on everyone's lips um at least until everyone started talking about World Liberty Financial and that is the prospect of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. It's pretty much guaranteed in terms of probabilities 90% or so that the market thinks we're going to have a rate cut in September. So the star continue in the easing cycle. Uh and apart from that we've also got global events in terms of maybe you know we could have a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. Maybe maybe I know it's it's like uh it seems optimistic right now, but maybe uh potential major trade deals. Well, I think yeah, I think that's probably the more likely uh outcome that we can look that we can maybe pin some hopes on geopolitically speaking because obviously the tariff thing, you know, hasn't gone away. China got an extra
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
More on Fed policy rate
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Relayed
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Relayed
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Not verifiable
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Incorrect so far · 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Relayed
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026
Relayed