Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Jun 5, 2024, at 7:00 in the video.

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202120222023202420242025Said on Jun 5, 2024
−2%0%2%4%6%2021202220242025Said on Jun 5, 2024

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Somebody else's forecast — not scored

What was said around it

like button smash the Subscribe and ping that Bell as well it would be much appreciated so when Al season eh well perhaps the best way to get a sense of this is to start right from the top at the macro and then work our way down to the micro factors on the macro side of it the biggest factor is clearly interest rates how much money people have left over after paying their debts determines how much money is invested in any sort of speculative asset class and the main driver with this is of course fed policy when will we see that long awaited fed pivot well um current interest rate Futures are expecting a pivot by September the earliest however there is a lot that can happen until then I mean let's not forget that we began this year thinking that we would see a pivot by March unfortunately though inflation it's still sticky and uh growth is strong and together these two variables mean that Jerome is less inclined to want to Pivot but let's assume that September is the day you then have to ask yourself how long it will take for the reduction in rates to work their way into people's pockets this is the lag effect of monetary policy and it can take anywhere up to 18 months that said you know

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