“current interest rate Futures are expecting a pivot by September the earliest”Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall
Said on Jun 5, 2024, at 7:00 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
like button smash the Subscribe and ping that Bell as well it would be much appreciated so when Al season eh well perhaps the best way to get a sense of this is to start right from the top at the macro and then work our way down to the micro factors on the macro side of it the biggest factor is clearly interest rates how much money people have left over after paying their debts determines how much money is invested in any sort of speculative asset class and the main driver with this is of course fed policy when will we see that long awaited fed pivot well um current interest rate Futures are expecting a pivot by September the earliest however there is a lot that can happen until then I mean let's not forget that we began this year thinking that we would see a pivot by March unfortunately though inflation it's still sticky and uh growth is strong and together these two variables mean that Jerome is less inclined to want to Pivot but let's assume that September is the day you then have to ask yourself how long it will take for the reduction in rates to work their way into people's pockets this is the lag effect of monetary policy and it can take anywhere up to 18 months that said you know
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More on Fed policy rate
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026