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Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Dec 8, 2018, at 6:03 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“as the Fed continues to increase interest rates the problem that I see with this is that the low interest rate you get right now on an adjustable rate mortgage is really just a teaser interest rate for which the loan will inevitably just end up going up in price”
Watch at 6:03How NOT to Invest In Real Estate!!
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

2.25%

Dec 8, 2018

Reading at close

1.75%

Dec 8, 2019

Change

−0.50 pp

The policy rate was 2.25% at the start of the window and 1.75% on Dec 8, 2019, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%0.5%1%1.5%2%2.5%3%201520162017201820192020Said on Dec 8, 2018
0%1%2%3%2015201720182020Said on Dec 8, 2018

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct2.25%2.5%Jan 7, 2019+0.25 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct2.25%2.5%Mar 8, 2019+0.25 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct2.25%2.5%Jun 6, 2019+0.25 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct2.25%1.75%Dec 8, 2019−0.50 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct2.25%0.25%Dec 7, 2021−2.00 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Correct2.25%5.5%Dec 7, 2023+3.25 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 2.25% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Jan 7, 2019, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 2.25% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Mar 8, 2019, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 2.25% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Jun 6, 2019, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 2.25% at the start of the window and 1.75% on Dec 8, 2019, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 2.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Dec 7, 2021, a net change of −2.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

The policy rate was 2.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Dec 7, 2023, a net change of +3.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 325 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

out a short-term loan or get an adjustable rate mortgage this just means your loan interest rate is fixed for the initial term of that loan and then after that it readjusts you whatever the market rates are which chances are is going to be a lot higher than they are today and then every single year after that your loan is going to readjust at whatever the current market interest rate is which like we all know and like I said is probably going to be way more expensive as the Fed continues to increase interest rates the problem that I see with this is that the low interest rate you get right now on an adjustable rate mortgage is really just a teaser interest rate for which the loan will inevitably just end up going up in price and this just means your payments over time are gonna end up becoming dramatically more expensive this is largely what ended up causing the 2008 real estate crash is that people were buying properties they couldn't afford with too much leverage on an adjustable rate mortgage then what happened is that eventually the teaser interest rate readjusted to current market interest rates which were a lot higher what they originally locked in at all of a sudden they couldn't

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed