“the market believes the Fed will begin lowering interest rates as soon as March of 2024.”Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall
Said on Dec 13, 2023, at 11:40 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
distributed, and fundamentally defined performance relative to the last decade or so. In other words, normal and typical. Or basically, all of this means that absolutely nobody has any clue what's going to happen in the next year. Even though it seems like on the surface, if the Fed lowers interest rates, the stock market might continue to go even higher. Although in terms of when this is going to happen and how fast it could occur, wonder no longer because this is exactly what the Federal Reserve just said. Look, it's important to mention that as of right now, the market believes the Fed will begin lowering interest rates as soon as March of 2024. Although, in terms of what Jerome Powell says, it's not so black and white. In a recent interview, he admitted that their current policies were slowing the United States well into restrictive territory. Their key measure of inflation averaged 2 and 1/2% over the last 6 months, barely above their 2% target, and that the full effects of the Fed's rate hikes to date have likely not yet been felt. Basically, suggesting that barring any sort of economic disaster, interest rates are likely as high as they're already going to be. Like Bloomberg even went so
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
More on Fed policy rate
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026