Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Dec 13, 2023, at 11:40 in the video.

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202320242025Said on Dec 13, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202220232025Said on Dec 13, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Somebody else's forecast — not scored

What was said around it

distributed, and fundamentally defined performance relative to the last decade or so. In other words, normal and typical. Or basically, all of this means that absolutely nobody has any clue what's going to happen in the next year. Even though it seems like on the surface, if the Fed lowers interest rates, the stock market might continue to go even higher. Although in terms of when this is going to happen and how fast it could occur, wonder no longer because this is exactly what the Federal Reserve just said. Look, it's important to mention that as of right now, the market believes the Fed will begin lowering interest rates as soon as March of 2024. Although, in terms of what Jerome Powell says, it's not so black and white. In a recent interview, he admitted that their current policies were slowing the United States well into restrictive territory. Their key measure of inflation averaged 2 and 1/2% over the last 6 months, barely above their 2% target, and that the full effects of the Fed's rate hikes to date have likely not yet been felt. Basically, suggesting that barring any sort of economic disaster, interest rates are likely as high as they're already going to be. Like Bloomberg even went so

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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