Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate — not judged: the rule reads only US national figures

Said on Jan 28, 2023, at 13:10 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“the FED will likely raise interest rates again and partly because countries like Japan are being forced to sell U.S bonds for dollars to buy their own currencies to buy their own bonds further raising U.S interest rates”
Watch at 13:10Will the United States Default!? Debt Ceiling Explained!!
PredictionFed policy rate— not judged: the rule reads only US national figuresChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020202021202220232024Said on Jan 28, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202120222024Said on Jan 28, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-FED v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-FED v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-FED v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: subject not covered. The call names another country, currency or central bank; this rule reads US figures only.

What was said around it

ceiling standoff will result in a similarly bad set of outcomes but it looks like it could be much much worse besides the fact that the US government has a lot more debt and expenses than it did back in 2011 political polarization in the country is at an all-time high this means that it's going to be extremely difficult for opposing politicians to come to consensus and some would rather let it all burn more importantly the treasury may run out of money sooner than June this is partly because the FED will likely raise interest rates again and partly because countries like Japan are being forced to sell U.S bonds for dollars to buy their own currencies to buy their own bonds further raising U.S interest rates now I'm no macro expert but I'm pretty sure this means that the treasury will be hit with a double whammy less revenue from taxes and fees because High interest rates are crashing the U.S economy and more expenses because the interest owed to U.S bondholders has gone up also because of higher rates the end result result is less runway for the treasury which is probably why President Biden is focusing his efforts on getting a deal to raise the debt ceiling approved by mid-april at the latest

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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