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Andrei Jikh: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Apr 4, 2025, at 1:21 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“these tariffs could be deflationary and it could cause the US economy to slow down enough to force the Fed to lower interest rates”
Watch at 1:21The Global Reset Just Started (What You Must Know)
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.5%

Apr 4, 2025

Reading at close

3.75%

Apr 4, 2026

Change

−0.75 pp

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Apr 4, 2026, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%202220232023202420252026Said on Apr 4, 2025
0%2%4%6%2022202320252026Said on Apr 4, 2025

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect4.5%4.5%May 4, 20250.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect4.5%4.5%Jul 3, 20250.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct4.5%4.25%Oct 1, 2025−0.25 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct4.5%3.75%Apr 4, 2026−0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Apr 3, 2028——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Apr 3, 2030——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on May 4, 2025, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jul 3, 2025, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.25% on Oct 1, 2025, a net change of −0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Apr 4, 2026, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 3, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 3, 2030.

What was said around it

modern history putting a 10% tariff on All Imports across the board China got hit with 34% Vietnam 46% even the European Union is facing a 20% tariff now the message is clear America wants to bring production home secure its Supply chains and assert its dominance now the people who support this say this is needed to protect National Security and rebuild American Industries but critics argue that we should get ready to pay higher prices trade Wars and global economic Fallout but there might also be a twist ending to the story now these tariffs could be deflationary and it could cause the US economy to slow down enough to force the Fed to lower interest rates and rescue the economy which would allow the US to refinance its debt and send the markets to the moon now all of this sounds kind of crazy there's a lot of fear and confusion out there and I want to help explain how this will reshape everything from your portfolio to the future of the global monetary system so here's what's going on and how this will affect you let's get into it hi my name is Andre J hope you're doing well come for the finance and stay for the global reset so we're back to tariffs again so let me start by explaining

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed