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Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Apr 19, 2022, at 12:51 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“the FED will hit that 2.5 Target in less than a year specifically January 2023”
Watch at 12:51The Coming CRASH?! Why The Fed MUST BE WATCHED!! 📉
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseby Jan 31, 2023
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

0.5%

Apr 19, 2022

Reading at close

5%

Apr 19, 2023

Change

+4.50 pp

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Apr 19, 2023, a net change of +4.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 450 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202021202120222023Said on Apr 19, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202020222023Said on Apr 19, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct0.5%1%May 19, 2022+0.50 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct0.5%1.75%Jul 18, 2022+1.25 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct0.5%3.25%Oct 16, 2022+2.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct0.5%5%Apr 19, 2023+4.50 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct0.5%4.5%Apr 18, 2025+4.00 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Apr 18, 2027——
Stated deadlineR-FED v4Correct0.5%4.5%Jan 31, 2023+4.00 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 1.00% on May 19, 2022, a net change of +0.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 1.75% on Jul 18, 2022, a net change of +1.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 125 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 3.25% on Oct 16, 2022, a net change of +2.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 275 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Apr 19, 2023, a net change of +4.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 450 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Apr 18, 2025, a net change of +4.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 500 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 18, 2027.

Why: Stated deadline

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jan 31, 2023, a net change of +4.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 400 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

priced in the incoming sell pressure from the FED which will of course raise interest rates on these types of debt this kind of front-running behavior is common in crypto too and you can find out how you can get ahead of an upcoming pump by checking out my video about that using the link in the description so what happens next well for the time being it looks like the FED is still intending to increase the federal funds rate between 2.5 and 3 percent if we assume the same two-month timeline that Jerome gave for the fed's interest rate hikes earlier this year the FED will hit that 2.5 Target in less than a year specifically January 2023 note that this is for short-term interest rates when it comes to long-term interest rates if you watch my aforementioned video about Jerome Powell's most recent testimony you might recall that he tacitly admitted each 500 billion dollars of cell pressure from the FED equates to an additional 0.5 percent increase in interest rates with over five trillion dollars in government bonds on its balance sheet the 60 billion per month sell-off of these specific assets detailed in the March meeting minutes means medium and long-term interest rates will see another

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed