“Right now, the market is pricing in the Federal Reserve resuming rate cuts around June
2026.”Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall
Said on Jan 29, 2026, at 9:03 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
leads Bitcoin by roughly 3 to 7 months. Now, think back to 2020, for example. Gold hit an all-time high in August 2020. Bitcoin didn't start its parabolic run until late Q4 of that year. The lag is real. If this cycle holds, Bitcoin's current stagnation isn't a sign of death. It's simply a timing mismatch. The massive rally in gold and silver that began in late 2025 could be setting the stage for a violent Bitcoin breakout in Q2 of this year. Why Q2? Well, uh that's because that is when the macro environment is expected to shift. Right now, the market is pricing in the Federal Reserve resuming rate cuts around June 2026. When rates come down, liquidity expands, and when liquidity expands, capital rotates out of defensive havens like gold into faster horses like Bitcoin. The current divergence is frustrating, yes, but it is also mathematically consistent with previous cycles. And here is the news flash that bears are ignoring. While retail investors are panic selling because Bitcoin dropped 30%, larger investors have been buying the dip. And one example here has been Strategy. During the so-called weakness of Q4 2025, Strategy didn't sell. They accumulated
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
More on Fed policy rate
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026