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Andrei Jikh: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Nov 3, 2023, at 7:26 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“the theory is sometime in 2024 or when we go into a recession because they'll have to lower rates to pull us out of it”
Watch at 7:26The US Economy Just Got Worse: Interest Rates Frozen, Massive Debt, & Layoffs
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallby Dec 31, 2024
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

5.5%

Nov 3, 2023

Reading at close

5%

Nov 2, 2024

Change

−0.50 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Nov 2, 2024, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202320242025Said on Nov 3, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202220232025Said on Nov 3, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Dec 3, 20230.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Feb 1, 20240.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%May 1, 20240.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct5.5%5%Nov 2, 2024−0.50 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct5.5%4%Nov 2, 2026−1.50 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Nov 1, 2028——
Stated deadlineR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.5%Dec 31, 2024−1.00 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Dec 3, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Feb 1, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on May 1, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Nov 2, 2024, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Nov 2, 2026, a net change of −1.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 175 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Nov 1, 2028.

Why: Stated deadline

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Dec 31, 2024, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

higher interest rate and that's how this mechanism works of whenever interest rates go down bond prices go up and that's why people speculate that right now is the time to buy into these bonds because their prices will go up because the FED will lower rates now I did simplify this a little bit though because there is a difference between bond funds and individual bonds but we'll skip that part so then the question is when will the Federal Reserve lower interest rates and that's the million dooll question that no one knows the answer to but the theory is sometime in 2024 or when we go into a recession because they'll have to lower rates to pull us out of it but for now there is one more potential rate increase this year the next time we'll find out is December 13 2023 but so far the odds are in our favor that the rates will stay the same but it can also change as we get closer to the 13th now what I think is kind of funny though is that if you say interest rates are kind of high right now to someone who was alive in the 70s and ' 80s they'll be like ah you young whipper snappers interest rates were way higher back when I was younger and that's true interest rates 40 to 50 years ago were in

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed