Said on Jul 14, 2023, at 6:16 in the video.
“the market is predicting that there's only a 5.8 percent chance that the rate will stay exactly as it is instead it shows that the most likely outcome is that interest rates will go up by a quarter percent or the fancy way of saying it is 25 basis points on July 26th it shows there's a 94 chance that the new rate will be between 5.25 and five and a half percent”Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Somebody else's forecast — not scored
July 26th we're gonna find out what's going to happen to interest rates and if you don't want to know the spoilers spoilers ahead so just a fair warning because the market already knows there's a tool that's called the CME fed watch tool that's been extremely reliable in predicting what will happen and here's what it says you can see that the current interest rate is 500 to 525 basis points that's 5 to 5.25 percent the market is predicting that there's only a 5.8 percent chance that the rate will stay exactly as it is instead it shows that the most likely outcome is that interest rates will go up by a quarter percent or the fancy way of saying it is 25 basis points on July 26th it shows there's a 94 chance that the new rate will be between 5.25 and five and a half percent now if you were disappointed by this news because maybe you were looking forward to buy a house at a lower interest rate don't be too upset and don't get a loan right now thinking that you can get in before those rates go up because most of the commercial Banks not all of them but a lot of them do this have already Christ in the new loans today based on the data that I just shared with you as soon as they figure this
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026
