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Joseph Carlson: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Dec 12, 2023, at 5:07 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I think they're going to cut rates and uh you I think they're going to cut rates sooner than people expect pretty soon so you know I think the market expects sometime middle of next year I think it's more likely probably as early as q1”
Watch at 5:07My Five Favorite Stocks For 2024
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

5.5%

Dec 12, 2023

Reading at close

4.75%

Dec 11, 2024

Change

−0.75 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Dec 11, 2024, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202320242025Said on Dec 12, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202220232025Said on Dec 12, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Jan 11, 20240.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Mar 11, 20240.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Jun 9, 20240.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.75%Dec 11, 2024−0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Dec 11, 2026——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Dec 10, 2028——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jan 11, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Mar 11, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jun 9, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Dec 11, 2024, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 11, 2026.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Dec 10, 2028.

What was said around it

much more multiple compression we just won't see much multiple expansion and if the multiples remain exactly how they are today vichi should grow right along with their earnings growth which would mean that they still have a decent year in 2024 so even in the scenario that interest rates hang around where where they are today I don't see much more downside for vich but that of course is not the only scenario there is of course the option that the FED begins to cut rates in 2024 I think they're going to cut rates and uh you I think they're going to cut rates sooner than people expect pretty soon so you know I think the market expects sometime middle of next year I think it's more likely probably as early as q1 Bill Amman is predicting that the FED will be forced to cut interest rates early next year and this isn't off the cuff this isn't said in justest he has actually positioned his portfolio on this happening he is buying specific positions that will benefit from an interest rate cut in this scenario that we start to see interest rate Cuts sooner than expected companies like vichi will benefit from the relative value of savings accounts and money market accounts going down vich will

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

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“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

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“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

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“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

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