As of Nov 4, 2026, Callsight has judged 104 of Graham Stephan's calls Correct or Incorrect at one year: 63 correct and 41 incorrect. On the 84 of them with a comparable base rate (how often the called move happened anyway), 57.1% were correct, against a base rate of 47.2%. Every call links to the second it was said.
Hit rate, 1 year
60.6%(104 calls)
63 correct · 41 incorrect (out of 104 checked calls) After 3 years: 71.9% (89 calls) · on the 73 of 89 calls that have a base rate: 69.9% correct, base rate 51.9%
Above the base rate
+10.0pts
On the 84 of 104 calls with a comparable base rate: 57.1% correct, against a base rate of 47.2%.
Return vs benchmark
+9.9pts
Average over 13 price calls with a benchmark. 95% range −67.8 pts to +87.5 pts.
Predictions tracked
550
2 still open · 169 relayed from someone else · 155 own calls not scored
AI Ask an AI about Graham Stephan’s videos
An AI simulation that answers from Graham Stephan’s own videos and shows the exact words it relied on.
Unofficial: not made or reviewed by Graham Stephan
Every direction call with both results, both directions, so neither is picked.
Still correct after 1 year
9 of 16
Fewer than 20 calls have both results, so a count is shown and no percentage. Over the same windows, 71.5% of 30-day moves in the same instruments were still in the same direction after 1 year (measured on 16 of 16 calls). Correct after 30 days, still open at 1 year: 1
30 days → 1 year
30 days / 1 year
Correct 1 year
Incorrect 1 year
Correct 30 days
Correct 1 year9
Incorrect 1 year7
Incorrect 30 days
Correct 1 year4
Incorrect 1 year7
Incorrect after 30 days, correct after 1 year: 4 of 11 · Methodology
Calls per month
The last 24 months
UpDownOther
Recent predictions
What was said on the left, what happened on the right.
“Instead, just invest the difference in the S&P 500. And over the long term, over the next 20 years, you're going to have so much more money than what you would have put in the property.”
Watch at 5:38I Paid Off My 2.875% Mortgage…Dave Ramsey Was Right
PredictionSPYwill outperformChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable
Not verifiable: comparison not supported. A call that one asset will beat another is not checked yet, and it is not judged as a plain rise or fall.
“short-term, I would not be surprised if we see a 5 to 12% market drawdown just because of market uncertainty.”
Watch at 12:24It Started: America’s Bond Market Is Secretly Collapsing
PredictionMarket correctionwill happenChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 30 days
Incorrect so far · 30 days
Entry price (first close after the video)
$773.17
Sep 3, 2026
Total return, dividends included
−0.2%
SPY closed at $773.17 on Sep 3, 2026. Between then and Oct 2, 2026, its deepest fall from a running peak was −2.5%, on Sep 16, 2026. A fall of at least 10.0% counts as a correction, and at least 5.0% as partial. The call was that a correction would come.
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Watch at 10:28It Started: America’s Bond Market Is Secretly Collapsing
Watch at 9:35THE FED JUST RESET THE MARKET - Stocks Hit All-Time-High, Interest Rates Skyrocket!
PredictionMortgage rateswill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 30 days
Within band so far · 30 days
Reading when said
6.69%
Aug 10, 2026
Reading at close
6.71%
Sep 9, 2026
Change
+0.02 pp
Mortgage rates stood at 6.69% at the start of the window and 6.71% at Sep 9, 2026, a change of +0.02 pp (MORTGAGE30US, first releases). The call was that it would rise. Moves smaller than 0.5 pp are treated as no change.
“starting now, mortgage rates have already begun going higher.”
Watch at 0:16THE FED JUST RESET THE MARKET - Stocks Hit All-Time-High, Interest Rates Skyrocket!
Predictiona call under review
What happened
Not scored
How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.
Housing market calls by finance YouTubers, checked against Case-Shiller and Freddie Mac. House prices are judged on the growth rate, not the price level.
Graham Stephan's own calls on housing, rates, stocks and Bitcoin, each quoted to the second and checked against real prices and FRED data.
Questions people ask
How accurate are Graham Stephan's predictions?
As of Nov 4, 2026, Callsight has judged 104 of Graham Stephan's calls Correct or Incorrect at one year: 63 correct and 41 incorrect. On the 84 of them with a comparable base rate (how often the called move happened anyway), 57.1% were correct, against a base rate of 47.2%. Every call links to the second it was said. After 3 years: 71.9% (89 calls) · on the 73 of 89 calls that have a base rate: 69.9% correct, base rate 51.9%
How are Graham Stephan's predictions checked?
Each one is quoted word for word from a public video and linked to the second it was said. A price call is measured from the first closing price after the video went public, and every call is checked at 30 days, 90 days, 180 days, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, by fixed rules that are the same for every channel.
Do Graham Stephan's price calls beat their benchmark?
Return against the benchmark at one year: +9.9 points, the average over 13 price calls with a benchmark (95% range −67.8 to +87.5 points). How the return is measured is on the methodology page.
Is this investment advice?
No. This is a record of what people said in public and what happened next. Nothing here tells you to buy or sell anything.
Hit rates count each distinct call once, however often it was repeated, and leave out calls that could not be checked. Methodology
