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Andrei Jikh: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Aug 26, 2024, at 14:27 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“which means we either have to pay down the debt or lower interest rates real soon which I think is what we're going to do”
Watch at 14:27The Dollar Is Crashing (How Your Retirement Could Be At Risk)
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

5.5%

Aug 26, 2024

Reading at close

4.5%

Aug 26, 2025

Change

−1.00 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Aug 26, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202120222023202420252025Said on Aug 26, 2024
−2%0%2%4%6%2021202320242025Said on Aug 26, 2024

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct5.5%5%Sep 25, 2024−0.50 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.75%Nov 24, 2024−0.75 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.5%Feb 22, 2025−1.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.5%Aug 26, 2025−1.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Aug 26, 2027——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Aug 25, 2029——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Sep 25, 2024, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Nov 24, 2024, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Feb 22, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Aug 26, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 26, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Aug 25, 2029.

What was said around it

employment but it depends on a lot of factors now if you made it this far into the video here's what I personally think if you watched my video last week before the revision was announced I said exactly that in my video this year we're in an election year so all the numbers that I'm seeing reported by the government I tend to think the real numbers are probably not as good as what I'm seeing and a week later that news came out so yes the US economy is slowing down and every 100 days that passes we add another $1 trillion to the National debt which means we either have to pay down the debt or lower interest rates real soon which I think is what we're going to do now I don't know 100% for sure if interest rates will go down in September but it looks like there's a strong possibility either way looks like it's a really good time to be an investor holding assets and if you're mostly a consumer that's not investing I'm going to repeat what I said in my last video which is to please make sure that you have at least six months of expenses built up in an emergency fund and as for me I'm going to continue holding my assets investing and holding a little bit of cash which is exactly what people like

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed