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Andrei Jikh: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on May 22, 2023, at 13:43 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“we've already seen our last interest rate increase in May of this year so sometime later this year we might see interest rates go down”
Watch at 13:43The 2023 Recession Is Cancelled…?
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallby Dec 31, 2023
What happenedafter 1 year
Incorrect

Reading when said

5.25%

May 22, 2023

Reading at close

5.5%

May 21, 2024

Change

+0.25 pp

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on May 21, 2024, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202220232024Said on May 22, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202120232024Said on May 22, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.25%5.25%Jun 21, 20230.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.25%5.5%Aug 20, 2023+0.25 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.25%5.5%Nov 18, 2023+0.25 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Incorrect5.25%5.5%May 21, 2024+0.25 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct5.25%3.75%May 21, 2026−1.50 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——May 20, 2028——
Stated deadlineR-FED v4Incorrect5.25%5.5%Dec 31, 2023+0.25 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jun 21, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Aug 20, 2023, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Nov 18, 2023, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on May 21, 2024, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 3.75% on May 21, 2026, a net change of −1.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 20, 2028.

Why: Stated deadline

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Dec 31, 2023, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

what will Papa Jerome Powell do will he get us out of that future recession by low lowering interest rates or will he keep those interest rates High to try to get rid of the inflation AKA slowed down the rate of price expansion now the stock market thinks he'll start lowering interest rates as early as November and believe it or not data actually kind of supports that conclusion dating back to the 1950s the average amount of time the Federal Reserve started to cut rates after their final rate increase was only just two months now we've already seen our last interest rate increase in May of this year so sometime later this year we might see interest rates go down the FED is telling us that won't happen but data shows that it actually might now if you're in the market to buy something you might get an opportunity to get that lower rate later this year personally I don't try to time the market which is why I always dollar cost average into it but at least I do try to understand it now I personally love to hear your thoughts about this because in my opinion the recession is not canceled yet in the meantime focus on your own investment journey I hope you have a wonderful rest of your day smash

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed