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Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Mar 7, 2023, at 12:46 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“personally I'm in the belief that we're likely to see a series of 25 basis point rate hikes throughout the rest of 2023 because so far everything they do lasts a lot longer than everybody expects”
Watch at 12:46A Warning For The 2023 Stock Market
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.75%

Mar 7, 2023

Reading at close

5.5%

Mar 6, 2024

Change

+0.75 pp

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Mar 6, 2024, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212021202220232024Said on Mar 7, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202120232024Said on Mar 7, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5%Apr 6, 2023+0.25 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.25%Jun 5, 2023+0.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.5%Sep 3, 2023+0.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.5%Mar 6, 2024+0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct4.75%3.75%Mar 6, 2026−1.00 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Mar 5, 2028——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Apr 6, 2023, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jun 5, 2023, a net change of +0.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 3, 2023, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Mar 6, 2024, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Mar 6, 2026, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 5, 2028.

What was said around it

these next few weeks with inflation picking up we're likely to see even more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve when the they meet next on March 22nd currently the market is pricing in a 75 likelihood that the FED is going to increase rates by another 25 basis points which would take their federal funds rate to almost five percent but there's also a 25 chance that they'll increase rates by 50 basis points which would absolutely shock the market will they take a more aggressive stance on inflation personally I'm in the belief that we're likely to see a series of 25 basis point rate hikes throughout the rest of 2023 because so far everything they do lasts a lot longer than everybody expects honestly at this point nothing would surprise me anymore except if you haven't already hit the like button and subscribe for the YouTube algorithm so with that said you guys thank you so much for watching as always feel free to add me on Instagram and don't forget that you can get a free stock with your sponsor public.com Down Below in the description when you make a deposit with a good gram and also they allow you to buy treasuries on there so if you're interested you could also do that on there

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed