Said on May 21, 2026, at 14:12 in the video.
“anyone who's waiting around for cheap money to come back is probably going to be waiting for a lot longer than expected.”The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
The direction of this call could not be determined with confidence, so it is held out of the score.
around Kevin Warsh has been a bit dramatic on both sides of the equation. Like, the reality is he inherited an economy with 3.8% inflation, $106 oil, a divided Federal Reserve, and the bond market that's already calling his bluff. On top of that, the market's not pricing in rate cuts anymore, like we all thought a few months ago. Instead, it's beginning to price in the chance of a rate hike. And none of this regime change rhetoric is going to change the numbers unless inflation meaningfully comes down. That's why I tend to think that anyone who's waiting around for cheap money to come back is probably going to be waiting for a lot longer than expected. Now, in terms of whether or not any of this was Kevin Warsh's fault, my take is kind of. Like, on the one hand, he did enter the Federal Reserve in the middle of oil prices spiking from the conflict in the Middle East. That is completely outside of his control. But on the other hand, the market doesn't believe that he's going to be tough on inflation. And they think that with him in control, prices are just going to be going crazy, and they don't believe anything he says. So, he isn't necessarily helping the situation, but he's also not
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026
