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Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Apr 8, 2025, at 10:51 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“the tariffs will tank the economy   which will most likely prompt the Federal  Reserve to lower interest rates significantly”
Watch at 10:51Recession by Design?! The Shocking Liberation Day Theory
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.5%

Apr 8, 2025

Reading at close

3.75%

Apr 8, 2026

Change

−0.75 pp

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Apr 8, 2026, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
0%1%2%3%4%5%6%202220232024202420252026Said on Apr 8, 2025
0%2%4%6%2022202320252026Said on Apr 8, 2025

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect4.5%4.5%May 8, 20250.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect4.5%4.5%Jul 7, 20250.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct4.5%4.25%Oct 5, 2025−0.25 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct4.5%3.75%Apr 8, 2026−0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Apr 7, 2028——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Apr 7, 2030——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on May 8, 2025, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jul 7, 2025, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.25% on Oct 5, 2025, a net change of −0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Apr 8, 2026, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 7, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Apr 7, 2030.

What was said around it

debt at a cheaper cost and kick  the can a bit further down the road well if you   don't want to sit around twiddling your thumbs  waiting for the rate cutting cycle to play out   you could take a more proactive approach if the  Fed's motivation for cutting interest rates is a   slowing economy then why not just go ahead and  slam on the brakes or you know just drive the   vehicle straight off a cliff so if the tariffs  look like a car crash then perhaps we should   believe our eyes after all the purpose of a system  is what it does the tariffs will tank the economy   which will most likely prompt the Federal  Reserve to lower interest rates significantly   investors can be expected to flee from risk  assets into the safety of US 10-year Treasury   notes pushing down their yields and therefore  the size of the government's debt repayments   now evidence for this sequence of events includes  Trump's frequent challenges to the Fed's legal and   operational independence he has openly criticized  and discussed firing Jerome Pal he has said that   presidents should quote have a say in rate  decisions and cited his business credentials   as superior to Fed officials expertise trump has  demanded

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed