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Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Jun 10, 2024, at 8:52 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“it's possible that it will signal a cut despite this hot jobs data that's simply because it's an election year and the FED doesn't want to look political”
Watch at 8:52Crypto News: BTC ETF Inflows, GameStop, Trump, BNB, KAS & MORE!
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

5.5%

Jun 10, 2024

Reading at close

4.5%

Jun 10, 2025

Change

−1.00 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jun 10, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202120222023202420242025Said on Jun 10, 2024
−2%0%2%4%6%2021202220242025Said on Jun 10, 2024

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Jul 10, 20240.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Sep 8, 20240.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.75%Dec 7, 2024−0.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.5%Jun 10, 2025−1.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Jun 10, 2027——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Jun 9, 2029——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jul 10, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 8, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Dec 7, 2024, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jun 10, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 10, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 9, 2029.

What was said around it

strong economy inflation could come back with a bang naturally this has led to concerns that the FED will keep interest rates higher for longer at its upcoming meeting this Wednesday evid for these concerns can be found in the fact that the dxy and 10-year yield spiked after the jobs data came in we'll come back to that later though as it deserves broader discussion more directly we also saw fed Futures increasing the probability of no pivot on the CME fed watch tool dashboard now regarding the fed's upcoming decision it's possible that it will signal a cut despite this hot jobs data that's simply because it's an election year and the FED doesn't want to look political If the Fed Cuts suddenly it will look like it's helping Biden if it doesn't cut at all it will look like it's helping Trump for reference this is the second last fed meeting before the Autumn and it's the last fed meeting before the Autumn that will include a summary of economic projections or sep If the Fed wants to make a move in either direction it will need to make these plans clear in this week's SCP or else risk being politicized that's why this week's fed meeting is so significant and why it could result in notable

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

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Sep 3, 2026

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“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

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“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

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“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

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“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

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