Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Feb 27, 2023, at 3:22 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“logically this means the FED will have to raise rates even higher in response”
Watch at 3:22Crypto News: ETH, Tezos, SEC, USDC Taking Over & More!
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.75%

Feb 27, 2023

Reading at close

5.5%

Feb 27, 2024

Change

+0.75 pp

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Feb 27, 2024, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212021202220232024Said on Feb 27, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202120232024Said on Feb 27, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5%Mar 29, 2023+0.25 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.25%May 28, 2023+0.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.5%Aug 26, 2023+0.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.5%Feb 27, 2024+0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct4.75%3.75%Feb 26, 2026−1.00 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Feb 26, 2028——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Mar 29, 2023, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.25% on May 28, 2023, a net change of +0.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Aug 26, 2023, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Feb 27, 2024, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Feb 26, 2026, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 26, 2028.

What was said around it

profits because of the money shortage the good news is that the CPI and PPI are still coming down albeit much slower than before the bad news is that the fed's favorite inflation index actually went back into positive territory in January the personal consumption expenditures or pce Rose by 0.1 percent from 5.3 percent to 5.4 percent this is a bigger deal than you think because it suggests that inflation in the U.S won't be coming down anytime soon if anything it suggests that the US could be on the brink of a second wave of inflation despite all the rate hikes logically this means the FED will have to raise rates even higher in response and that's just the macro side of the story The crypto side of the story is somehow looking even worse if you're subscribed to My Weekly Newsletter you'll know that I talked quite a bit about the recent Announcement by the fed the FDIC and the OCC about volatility in the crypto Market if you watched our video about operation choke point 2 you'll know that the fed the FDIC and the OCC all put out eerily similar warnings in early January in the weeks that followed we saw U.S banks distance themselves from the crypto industry and Regulators like the SEC started

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed