Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Aug 1, 2023, at 0:17 in the video.

What was saidAug 1, 2023

@coinbureau

“we are starting to see early signs of an inflation shock that could force the FED to raise rates higher than investors expect”

Watch at 0:17More Rate Hikes?? FED’s Press Conference REVEALS This!!

PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years

What happenedafter 1 year

Incorrect

Reading when said

5.5%

Aug 1, 2023

Reading at close

5.5%

Jul 31, 2024

Change

0.00 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jul 31, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Incorrect

1 year

Incorrect

Details and evidence Report a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Result at every window
Window	Result	At the start	At the end	Change	Benchmark
30 daysR-FED v4	Incorrect	5.5%	5.5%Aug 31, 2023	0.00 pp	—
90 daysR-FED v4	Incorrect	5.5%	5.5%Oct 30, 2023	0.00 pp	—
180 daysR-FED v4	Incorrect	5.5%	5.5%Jan 28, 2024	0.00 pp	—
1 yearR-FED v4	Incorrect	5.5%	5.5%Jul 31, 2024	0.00 pp	—
3 yearsR-FED v4	Incorrect	5.5%	3.75%Jul 31, 2026	−1.75 pp	—
5 yearsR-FED v4	Pending	—	—Jul 30, 2028	—	—

Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Aug 31, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Oct 30, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jan 28, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Jul 31, 2026, a net change of −1.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 30, 2028.

What was said around it

last week the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the 11th time bringing short-term interest rates in the United States to between 5.25 and 5.5 percent the consensus among investors is that the FED is almost finished hiking however we are starting to see early signs of an inflation shock that could force the FED to raise rates higher than investors expect this could cause serious Market volatility and not just in stocks and crypto So today we're going to bring you up to speed on what the FED has been up to summarize the press conference explain why an inflation shock could be imminent and examine what it could mean for the market as almost all of you will know the FED has been raising interest rates since last spring to fight inflation this initially caused markets to dump but for the last half year or so it's been nothing but pump this is simply because the markets are forward-looking

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

The window it was checked over

Result at every window

What was said around it

More on Fed policy rate