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Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Sep 17, 2025, at 13:53 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“That's why I wouldn't be surprised if we see another small rate cut when they meet in October and maybe another one when they meet in December.”
Watch at 13:53BREAKING: Federal Reserve JUST SLASHED RATES – Massive Pivot Ahead!
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.5%

Sep 17, 2025

Reading at close

4%

Sep 17, 2026

Change

−0.50 pp

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Sep 17, 2026, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
2%3%4%5%6%202220232024202520262026Said on Sep 17, 2025
2%3%4%5%6%2022202420252026Said on Sep 17, 2025

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct4.5%4.25%Oct 17, 2025−0.25 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct4.5%3.75%Dec 16, 2025−0.75 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct4.5%3.75%Mar 16, 2026−0.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct4.5%4%Sep 17, 2026−0.50 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Sep 16, 2028——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Sep 16, 2030——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.25% on Oct 17, 2025, a net change of −0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Dec 16, 2025, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Mar 16, 2026, a net change of −0.75 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 4.50% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Sep 17, 2026, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 16, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Sep 16, 2030.

What was said around it

were pretty bad. And it's not surprising the Federal Reserve is stepping in to rescue the market, even though they're doing that at a time when asset prices are near an all-time high and inflation remains elevated. This is going to be a really unique spot for them to be in because on the one hand, if they lower interest rates too much, they risk inflation coming back. But if they wait too long, they risk the unemployment rate rising. It's going to be a really delicate balancing act, not to hurt one for the sake of the other. That's why I wouldn't be surprised if we see another small rate cut when they meet in October and maybe another one when they meet in December. I'm fully expecting them to take it a bit slower than expected. And with PWTM ending May of 2026, next year could be very interesting if Trump appoints somebody who pushes for even more rate cuts than we're seeing today. But please let me know what you think of this down below in the comments section. I will do my best to read and reply to as many of you as I can. And if you haven't done it already, hit the like button, subscribe. Thank you so much and until next

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed