Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Dec 6, 2023, at 12:18 in the video.

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202320242025Said on Dec 6, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202220232025Said on Dec 6, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Somebody else's forecast — not scored

What was said around it

you definitively that I am seeing way better deals out there with properties that don't properly advertise M themselves but you know what I could save that for another video anyway with that now out of the way we got to answer the question now which is statistically what is most likely to happen throughout the housing market in 2024 well according to the data here's what we do know investors overwhelmingly believe that the Federal Reserve will begin lowering interest rates in mid 2024 or if you want more precise information there is a 52% chance that we'll see a quarter point reduction by May of 2024 along with four more rate Cuts throughout the end of the year we also know that investors and Institution have a record 5.7 trillion parked in cash like money market funds many of which are yielding above 5% potentially serving as a massive Catalyst when that money eventually enters the markets or real estate and this is all just waiting on the sidelines for interest rates to drop this leads me to believe that even though by all measures the housing market is unaffordable there's still no shortage of money out there that's willing to bid up low inventory and that skews the market to prevent

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