“there is a 52% chance that we'll see a quarter point reduction by May of 2024 along with four more rate Cuts throughout the end of the year”Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall
Said on Dec 6, 2023, at 12:18 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
you definitively that I am seeing way better deals out there with properties that don't properly advertise M themselves but you know what I could save that for another video anyway with that now out of the way we got to answer the question now which is statistically what is most likely to happen throughout the housing market in 2024 well according to the data here's what we do know investors overwhelmingly believe that the Federal Reserve will begin lowering interest rates in mid 2024 or if you want more precise information there is a 52% chance that we'll see a quarter point reduction by May of 2024 along with four more rate Cuts throughout the end of the year we also know that investors and Institution have a record 5.7 trillion parked in cash like money market funds many of which are yielding above 5% potentially serving as a massive Catalyst when that money eventually enters the markets or real estate and this is all just waiting on the sidelines for interest rates to drop this leads me to believe that even though by all measures the housing market is unaffordable there's still no shortage of money out there that's willing to bid up low inventory and that skews the market to prevent
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More on Fed policy rate
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026