Said on Aug 22, 2025, at 10:16 in the video.
“All of this now gives us the chance of an almost 90% certainty of a rate cut on September 17th.”How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
How this call was recorded (its subject, its direction or a figure) is being checked again, because the words may not say what was first recorded. It is not scored until a person has reviewed it.
going to be targeting a 2% inflation rate, but we're going to be flexible with it. So, if it runs higher than 2% for a while, that's going to be fine. If it runs lower than that, that's going to be fine, too. It just depends on the situation. Essentially, this allows the Federal Reserve the option to keep inflation above 2% without keeping interest rates at a restrictive territory. And this is bullish for the economy as we're seeing. Basically, as long as this doesn't get out of control, above 2% inflation could theoretically become the new normal. All of this now gives us the chance of an almost 90% certainty of a rate cut on September 17th. And in terms of whether or not this is going to be good for the economy, here's what you need to know as far as why we should get a rate cut. Number one, the jobs market is declining. Really, with 70,000 jobs added in July, there's the concern that the labor market could actually be in some serious trouble, and rate cuts would help stimulate more growth. Two, Trump says that a rate cut would save the government almost a trillion dollars a year. In this case, our interest rates have a very close correlation to how much we pay in the national debt.
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Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026
