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Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Oct 23, 2025, at 5:53 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“They cut rates back in   September and are expected to deliver at least  two more cuts by the end of 2025.”
Watch at 5:53Extreme FEAR In Crypto! Time To Buy?
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.25%

Oct 23, 2025

Reading at close

4%

Oct 23, 2026

Change

−0.25 pp

The policy rate was 4.25% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Oct 23, 2026, a net change of −0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
3%3.5%4%4.5%5%5.5%6%202220232024202520262026Said on Oct 23, 2025
3%4%5%6%2022202420252026Said on Oct 23, 2025

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct4.25%4%Nov 22, 2025−0.25 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct4.25%3.75%Jan 21, 2026−0.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct4.25%3.75%Apr 21, 2026−0.50 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct4.25%4%Oct 23, 2026−0.25 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Oct 22, 2028——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Oct 22, 2030——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 4.25% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Nov 22, 2025, a net change of −0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 4.25% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Jan 21, 2026, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 4.25% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Apr 21, 2026, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 4.25% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Oct 23, 2026, a net change of −0.25 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 22, 2028.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Oct 22, 2030.

What was said around it

$19 billion in leverage positions were  wiped out in hours. The crypto market lost   $400 billion in value. This event proved that  crypto is no longer an isolated asset class,   but deeply intertwined with geopolitics and  macroeconomics. This is a new and unpredictable   risk that simply didn't exist in 2017 or 2021. And  it's a major reason why sentiment is so fragile.   But for every macro headwind, there is an equally  powerful tailwind. And the biggest one is coming   from the Federal Reserve. The Fed is now in a  monetary easing cycle. They cut rates back in   September and are expected to deliver at least  two more cuts by the end of 2025. Historically,   Fed rate cuts have been rocket fuel for risk  assets like Bitcoin. Lower rates weaken the dollar   and increase liquidity in the financial system,  pushing investors towards assets with higher   potential returns. One analyst put it perfectly.  Quote, "It was never about a 4-year cycle. It was   about liquidity. And right now, the Fed is turning  the liquidity taps back on." Now, this brings us   to another big change since the last cycle and  the most powerful reason for long-term optimism,   the regulatory revolution. For years,

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed