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Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Mar 22, 2023, at 24:11 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“the biggest macro factor is the Fed continuing to raise interest rates and keeping them higher for longer”
Watch at 24:11Crypto Crackdown Hearing!! Here's What's Going On!
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.75%

Mar 22, 2023

Reading at close

5.5%

Mar 21, 2024

Change

+0.75 pp

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Mar 21, 2024, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212021202220232024Said on Mar 22, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202120232024Said on Mar 22, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5%Apr 21, 2023+0.25 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.25%Jun 20, 2023+0.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.5%Sep 18, 2023+0.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.5%Mar 21, 2024+0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct4.75%3.75%Mar 21, 2026−1.00 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Mar 20, 2028——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Apr 21, 2023, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jun 20, 2023, a net change of +0.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 18, 2023, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Mar 21, 2024, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Mar 21, 2026, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 20, 2028.

What was said around it

institutions investing as soon as this summer that is why I and many others believe that the crypto bear Market bottom could occur in the coming months assuming it hasn't happened already of course once Hong Kong legalizes crypto in June and crypto regulations in the UK and EU come into Force later this year it's hard to see how crypto could go lower between now and then though there's no shortage of crypto and macro factors that could take the crypto Market lower the biggest crypto factor is a Crackdown on stable coins in the United States the biggest macro factor is the Fed continuing to raise interest rates and keeping them higher for longer from where I'm standing it looks like the outcome of both of these two big factors will be determined by the summer this means another two to three months of uncertainty the Silver Lining to this crypto Crackdown is that it will ultimately incentivize the creation of decentralized Alternatives now you could argue that a true cryptocurrency can't be regulated because there's no centralized point at which Regulators can apply pressure to achieve compliance unfortunately there are only a handful of cryptocurrencies that meet these criteria and

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed