Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Jul 12, 2025, at 12:07 in the video.

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
1%2%3%4%5%6%202220232024202520252026Said on Jul 12, 2025
1%2%3%4%5%6%2022202320252026Said on Jul 12, 2025

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked

Somebody else's forecast — not scored

What was said around it

nominee in the running  is Scott Bessant. As you're likely no doubt aware,   Bessant is already running the US Treasury and by  extension half the plumbing that keeps the global   dollar liquidity alive. During a Fox Business  interview last week, host Maria Butter Romo   pointed out that Wall Street has Bessent near  the top of the short list to replace Pal and   asked directly whether he would accept the chair.  Bessent ducked the question, saying he already has   quote the best job in Washington, but would quote  go where the president thinks I am best suited.   Bessent has stated that he expects a rate cutainly  by September. uh coming from the man who oversees   the US Treasury that reads less like a forecast  and a bit more like marching orders. Bessent   has also cautioned that if the Fed defers a cut  at its late July meeting, policymakers may have   to make a larger move in September. He framed  the bigger September step as a consequence of   waiting rather than a prediction of any specific  magnitude. Bessent essentially views things   like this. When short-term Treasury rates rise  above long-term rates, an inverted yield curve,   it means the Fed is being slow to adjust. He

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