“Bessent has stated that he expects a rate cutainly
by September.”Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall
Said on Jul 12, 2025, at 12:07 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
nominee in the running is Scott Bessant. As you're likely no doubt aware, Bessant is already running the US Treasury and by extension half the plumbing that keeps the global dollar liquidity alive. During a Fox Business interview last week, host Maria Butter Romo pointed out that Wall Street has Bessent near the top of the short list to replace Pal and asked directly whether he would accept the chair. Bessent ducked the question, saying he already has quote the best job in Washington, but would quote go where the president thinks I am best suited. Bessent has stated that he expects a rate cutainly by September. uh coming from the man who oversees the US Treasury that reads less like a forecast and a bit more like marching orders. Bessent has also cautioned that if the Fed defers a cut at its late July meeting, policymakers may have to make a larger move in September. He framed the bigger September step as a consequence of waiting rather than a prediction of any specific magnitude. Bessent essentially views things like this. When short-term Treasury rates rise above long-term rates, an inverted yield curve, it means the Fed is being slow to adjust. He
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
More on Fed policy rate
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026