Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Jun 14, 2023, at 9:05 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“and probably another one in September at least until it's clear that all inflation is beginning to go down”
Watch at 9:05THE FEDERAL RESERVE JUST FLIPPED | Major Changes Explained
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

5.25%

Jun 14, 2023

Reading at close

5.5%

Jun 13, 2024

Change

+0.25 pp

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jun 13, 2024, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202320232024Said on Jun 14, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202120232024Said on Jun 14, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.25%5.25%Jul 14, 20230.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct5.25%5.5%Sep 12, 2023+0.25 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct5.25%5.5%Dec 11, 2023+0.25 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct5.25%5.5%Jun 13, 2024+0.25 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct5.25%3.75%Jun 13, 2026−1.50 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Jun 12, 2028——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jul 14, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Sep 12, 2023, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Dec 11, 2023, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jun 13, 2024, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Jun 13, 2026, a net change of −1.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 12, 2028.

What was said around it

to raise rates again if inflation doesn't show signs of slowing down and as they've signaled there could be more coming throughout the rest of the year for example as it stands right now they've projected to raise rates another two-quarter percentage points before the end of the year bringing us to A 5.6 federal funds rate in just the next six months obviously this was not priced in and higher interest rates would continue to put downward pressure on the markets but it is a very clear signal that we're likely to see another rate hike in July and probably another one in September at least until it's clear that all inflation is beginning to go down for anyone wondering this is why the stock market reacted so negatively within seconds of the report being announced fortunately though a slight pullback isn't anything out of the ordinary and we should begin to see a lot more clarity on all of this over the next few weeks to months oh and by the way speaking of stocks if you guys are interested weibull is currently giving you all the way up to 12 free stocks when you sign up and make a deposit I do have a paid affiliate link Down Below in the description if you guys are interested so enjoy

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed