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Andrei Jikh: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Feb 17, 2023, at 3:09 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“the rates are likely going to go up and that's thanks to a new word in my vocabulary called disinflation”
Watch at 3:09Why The Stock Market Just Flipped
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.75%

Feb 17, 2023

Reading at close

5.5%

Feb 17, 2024

Change

+0.75 pp

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Feb 17, 2024, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020202021202220232024Said on Feb 17, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202120232024Said on Feb 17, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect4.75%4.75%Mar 19, 20230.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.25%May 18, 2023+0.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.5%Aug 16, 2023+0.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.5%Feb 17, 2024+0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct4.75%3.75%Feb 16, 2026−1.00 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Feb 16, 2028——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Mar 19, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.25% on May 18, 2023, a net change of +0.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Aug 16, 2023, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Feb 17, 2024, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Feb 16, 2026, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 16, 2028.

What was said around it

slow the economy down by making it more expensive to borrow money and their entire goal is to do all this without affecting jobs and employment now in 1969 the interest rate hit a peak of 9.15 but fast forward to today and our interest rate with the federal funds rate is about half of now everyone wanted to believe investors and Retail traders that the Federal Reserve was going to Pivot and start lowering their interest rates this year but the truth is the Federal Reserve is a bear and it don't care for people making money through investing and the rates are likely going to go up and that's thanks to a new word in my vocabulary called disinflation disinflation is really easy to understand all it means is that the rate of inflation is starting to slow down so that means the price of stuff is still going up but slower than it used to so disinflation is good but disinflation also has elements of inflation which is bad so here's what it means in the last CPI or consumer price index report the inflation reading was 6.4 percent that means from January 2022 to January 2023 the price of stuff went up 6.4 percent which is lower than the all-time Highs but it's still too high now if you're someone

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed