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Andrei Jikh: Fed policy rate will fall

Said on Mar 28, 2024, at 11:29 in the video.

What was said
Andrei Jikh

@andreijikh

“interest rates will most likely go down the Federal Reserve told us that they're planning on three interest rate Cuts this year”
Watch at 11:29The Robinhood Credit Card: The Best Credit Card Ever? (Watch BEFORE You Get It)
PredictionFed policy ratewill fallby Dec 31, 2024
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

5.5%

Mar 28, 2024

Reading at close

4.5%

Mar 28, 2025

Change

−1.00 pp

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Mar 28, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Incorrect

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202120222022202320242025Said on Mar 28, 2024
−2%0%2%4%6%2021202220242025Said on Mar 28, 2024

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Apr 27, 20240.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Incorrect5.5%5.5%Jun 26, 20240.00 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct5.5%5%Sep 24, 2024−0.50 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.5%Mar 28, 2025−1.00 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Mar 28, 2027——
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Mar 27, 2029——
Stated deadlineR-FED v4Correct5.5%4.5%Dec 31, 2024−1.00 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Apr 27, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jun 26, 2024, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 5.00% on Sep 24, 2024, a net change of −0.50 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Mar 28, 2025, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 28, 2027.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 27, 2029.

Why: Stated deadline

The policy rate was 5.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Dec 31, 2024, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest cut inside the window was 100 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

revenue user is multiples of a non-old customer so once someone joins gold they tend to increase the amount of money they put in Robin Hood they do more with us they're more profitable customer they get more value and not only do they get to charge everyone $5 a month but not everyone is also going to pay off their balances in full every month which means they'll get to make between 20 to 30% which is a lot of money but another potential downside that I think is super important to remember is that a lot of these perks will change and interest rates will most likely go down the Federal Reserve told us that they're planning on three interest rate Cuts this year and when that happens eventually our banks and companies like Robin Hood will also lower their interest rates as well so instead of 5% we might only get 4 and a half or maybe 4% and that's really important to remember if you're someone that's relying on your uninvested cash or the IRA contribution match to pay for the credit card on the flip side though I'm super excited about things like virtual cards which allows you to create dis disposable card numbers so you can have more privacy when you spend money that's a really cool feature

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed