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Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Jul 24, 2023, at 13:41 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“the FED will be raising interest rates again this Wednesday investors are currently pricing in another hike of 0.25 with a 99 probability”
Watch at 13:41Crypto News: Bitcoin Price, ETH Updates, Rate Hikes & MORE!!
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

5.25%

Jul 24, 2023

Reading at close

5.5%

Jul 23, 2024

Change

+0.25 pp

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jul 23, 2024, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020212022202320242024Said on Jul 24, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202220232024Said on Jul 24, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct5.25%5.5%Aug 23, 2023+0.25 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct5.25%5.5%Oct 22, 2023+0.25 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct5.25%5.5%Jan 20, 2024+0.25 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct5.25%5.5%Jul 23, 2024+0.25 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct5.25%3.75%Jul 23, 2026−1.50 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Jul 22, 2028——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Aug 23, 2023, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Oct 22, 2023, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jan 20, 2024, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Jul 23, 2024, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 5.25% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Jul 23, 2026, a net change of −1.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 22, 2028.

What was said around it

of the crypto industry could be one of the conditions for getting the UAE off said greylist it's also possible however that the fat f is demanding a permanent ban as in the case of Pakistan that would not be good the Silver Lining is that the fat F doesn't have this much sway with every country that means there will be a few that refuse to comply be they in the Gulf or elsewhere these could become the true safe havens for crypto but also the number one enemy of the fat F and its principal backer the United States on that note the FED will be raising interest rates again this Wednesday investors are currently pricing in another hike of 0.25 with a 99 probability so it's unlikely to affect the markets that much that's because markets only react to things that investors weren't expecting stuff that isn't priced in logically this means that an unexpected pause could cause the stock market to explode and it's likely that crypto would participate in this kind of surprise rally barring this kind of catalyst though all eyes or rather ears will be on fed chairman Jerome Powell in his subsequent press conference if Jerome says something that suggests interest rates are going to go higher than

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed