Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate — no direction stated

Said on Mar 18, 2026, at 11:47 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“we're probably not going to see any more rate cuts until either the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, starts his term, or we have an economic collapse that demands a rate cut as soon as possible.”
Watch at 11:47BREAKING: Federal Reserve CANCELS Rate Cuts - Gas Prices Skyrocket, Stock Market Plummets!
PredictionFed policy rate— no direction statedChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Not verifiable

Not verifiable: no direction stated. The claim does not say whether the policy rate will be cut or raised.

30 days

Not verifiable

90 days

Not verifiable

180 days

Not verifiable

1 year

Not verifiable

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
3.5%4%4.5%5%5.5%6%202320242024202520262027Said on Mar 18, 2026
3.5%4%4.5%5%5.5%6%2023202420252027Said on Mar 18, 2026

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
90 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
180 daysR-FED v4Not verifiable————
1 yearR-FED v4Not verifiable————
3 yearsR-FED v4Not verifiable————
5 yearsR-FED v4Not verifiable————
Why: 30 days

Not verifiable: no direction stated. The claim does not say whether the policy rate will be cut or raised.

Why: 90 days

Not verifiable: no direction stated. The claim does not say whether the policy rate will be cut or raised.

Why: 180 days

Not verifiable: no direction stated. The claim does not say whether the policy rate will be cut or raised.

Why: 1 year

Not verifiable: no direction stated. The claim does not say whether the policy rate will be cut or raised.

Why: 3 years

Not verifiable: no direction stated. The claim does not say whether the policy rate will be cut or raised.

Why: 5 years

Not verifiable: no direction stated. The claim does not say whether the policy rate will be cut or raised.

What was said around it

the risk of returning inflation thanks to higher oil prices. And even though there is a chance the entire situation resolves and oil prices come down just as quickly, it's too early to tell. And for that reason, the Federal Reserve is choosing to wait and see until they get more data, which is reasonably going to probably take them another few months. Obviously, this runs counter to Trump's demands after repeatedly calling Jerome Powell a numbskull, lazy, stupid, and a major loser. But, the reality is we're probably not going to see any more rate cuts until either the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, starts his term, or we have an economic collapse that demands a rate cut as soon as possible. This is also reinforced by the fact that just last week a federal judge quashed all criminal subpoenas against Jerome Powell while writing that the government served these subpoenas on the board to pressure its chair into voting for lower interest rates or resigning, and that the justifications were so thin and unsubstantiated. The judge even said that the dominant purpose of the whole thing appeared to be to harass and pressure Powell either to yield to the president or to resign and make way for a

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

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