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Joseph Carlson: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Mar 17, 2022, at 15:47 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“you're going to see a lot more of them over the next year because a federal funds rate went up a quarter of a percentage today and it's going to continue to go up throughout the rest of this year”
Watch at 15:47The Amazing Business Strategy Of AMC
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseby Dec 31, 2022
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

0.5%

Mar 17, 2022

Reading at close

4.75%

Mar 17, 2023

Change

+4.25 pp

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Mar 17, 2023, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 425 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%201920202020202120222023Said on Mar 17, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202020222023Said on Mar 17, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.5%0.5%Apr 16, 20220.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct0.5%1%Jun 15, 2022+0.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct0.5%2.5%Sep 13, 2022+2.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct0.5%4.75%Mar 17, 2023+4.25 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct0.5%4.5%Mar 16, 2025+4.00 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Mar 16, 2027——
Stated deadlineR-FED v4Correct0.5%4.5%Dec 31, 2022+4.00 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 0.50% on Apr 16, 2022, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 1.00% on Jun 15, 2022, a net change of +0.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Sep 13, 2022, a net change of +2.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 200 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Mar 17, 2023, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 425 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Mar 16, 2025, a net change of +4.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 500 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Mar 16, 2027.

Why: Stated deadline

The policy rate was 0.50% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Dec 31, 2022, a net change of +4.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 400 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

be challenges in the short term they have to make their employees happy and feel like they have a good job working at starbucks so they'll have to have some give and take there so overall i do view this as a challenge and a potential risk for the company but it doesn't deter me from holding it now the last piece of news we have mortgage rates going up four percent since the first time in 2019. now i don't want to discuss the housing market too much what i want to discuss are these type of headlines you're going to see a lot more of them over the next year because a federal funds rate went up a quarter of a percentage today and it's going to continue to go up throughout the rest of this year the basic summary is is that when interest rates go up the cost of money is higher that's called the cost of capital the price to borrow money becomes more expensive for everyone for individuals and businesses and when you look at this and try to factor it in with your portfolio i think there's two important things to factor in the first is keeping track if any company you own relies on debt by relying on debt i mean the company takes out debt to fund growth and without the debt they can no longer

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed