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Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Jun 5, 2022, at 12:09 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“i happen to fall into that bucket and think that we're likely to see a fed's”
Watch at 12:09Top 10 WORST Bear Market Mistakes: Watch OUT!! ⚠️
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseby Dec 31, 2022
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

1%

Jun 5, 2022

Reading at close

5.25%

Jun 5, 2023

Change

+4.25 pp

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jun 5, 2023, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 425 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202021202220222023Said on Jun 5, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202020222023Said on Jun 5, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct1%1.75%Jul 5, 2022+0.75 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct1%2.5%Sep 3, 2022+1.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct1%4%Dec 2, 2022+3.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct1%5.25%Jun 5, 2023+4.25 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct1%4.5%Jun 4, 2025+3.50 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Jun 4, 2027——
Stated deadlineR-FED v4Correct1%4.5%Dec 31, 2022+3.50 pp—
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 1.75% on Jul 5, 2022, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Sep 3, 2022, a net change of +1.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Dec 2, 2022, a net change of +3.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 300 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jun 5, 2023, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 425 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jun 4, 2025, a net change of +3.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 450 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jun 4, 2027.

Why: Stated deadline

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Dec 31, 2022, a net change of +3.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 350 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

What was said around it

bear market the rate reached a max of 2.4 percent before the fed started bringing it down towards the tail end of 2019. on top of this inflation was low and stable there wasn't a war in europe and corona was a beer things are a lot different today the fed is heading into a hard rate hiking cycle that has already started driving capital away from risk on assets and into treasuries and the like the consensus estimate for the fed's fund rate at the end of the year is 2.5 percent however there are many who think that even this will be too low to curb inflation i happen to fall into that bucket and think that we're likely to see a fed's fund rate of at least 3.5 by the end of the year the point is that we are rushing into a rate-tightening environment the likes of which we haven't seen for decades moreover if you've seen my video on the upcoming recession you'll know that we could be heading for a nasty dip in global growth in the next few months this is at a time of high inflation meaning we're likely due a period of the dreaded stagflation these are market conditions which crypto has never experienced the most recent global recession was back in 2008 and that was before bitcoin was even

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed