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Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Jan 30, 2022, at 6:24 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“by march we could start to see the first rate hikes in over two years”
Watch at 6:24Start of Crypto WINTER?! What You NEED To Know!!
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

0.25%

Jan 30, 2022

Reading at close

4.5%

Jan 30, 2023

Change

+4.25 pp

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jan 30, 2023, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 425 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%201920192020202120222023Said on Jan 30, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202020212023Said on Jan 30, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect0.25%0.25%Mar 1, 20220.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct0.25%0.5%Apr 30, 2022+0.25 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct0.25%2.5%Jul 29, 2022+2.25 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct0.25%4.5%Jan 30, 2023+4.25 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct0.25%4.5%Jan 29, 2025+4.25 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Jan 29, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.25% on Mar 1, 2022, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 0.50% on Apr 30, 2022, a net change of +0.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 25 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Jul 29, 2022, a net change of +2.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 225 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jan 30, 2023, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 425 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 0.25% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jan 29, 2025, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 525 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jan 29, 2027.

What was said around it

placed in that risk on bucket this can be evidenced by the increasing correlation that we've seen between equities and crypto since the stimulus began now of course you don't pour trillions into a lock down economy without having negative side effects more about that in the description anyhoo the markets got high on the fed supply and everyone knew that the withdrawal symptoms would be tough as the fed giveth so the fed taketh away and this year jerome and his buddies made it clear that they would start to unwind this stimulus the taper tantrum has thus ensued and by march we could start to see the first rate hikes in over two years you only need to take a look at the stock markets to see that the crash that we're seeing in crypto right now is not isolated those stocks that saw the most growth in 2020 and 2021 are being battered even some relatively safe bets are being hit as investors start to adjust their portfolios and move into bonds and the like the key point to realize here though is that this is not a crypto specific crash it's global macro factors that are clobbering a whole host of other assets markets are reacting to large institutional investors adjusting their positions in response

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed