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Coin Bureau: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Jul 26, 2022, at 20:09 in the video.

What was said
Coin Bureau

@coinbureau

“if you're wondering when the current recovery rally could end my bets are on mid to late september when ethereum's merge is expected to occur and when the federal reserve will return from its summer holiday with what's likely to be a fresh rate hike to fight inflation”
Watch at 20:09Have You SEEN THIS Crypto Report?! What It Says!!
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

1.75%

Jul 26, 2022

Reading at close

5.25%

Jul 26, 2023

Change

+3.50 pp

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jul 26, 2023, a net change of +3.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 350 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202021202220232023Said on Jul 26, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202120222023Said on Jul 26, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct1.75%2.5%Aug 25, 2022+0.75 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct1.75%3.25%Oct 24, 2022+1.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct1.75%4.5%Jan 22, 2023+2.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct1.75%5.25%Jul 26, 2023+3.50 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct1.75%4.5%Jul 25, 2025+2.75 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Jul 25, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Aug 25, 2022, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 3.25% on Oct 24, 2022, a net change of +1.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jan 22, 2023, a net change of +2.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 275 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jul 26, 2023, a net change of +3.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 350 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 1.75% at the start of the window and 4.50% on Jul 25, 2025, a net change of +2.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 375 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Jul 25, 2027.

What was said around it

low btc could go you'll know that the bitcoin hash rate fell by nearly 50 percent in previous bear markets but we're only 10 off the most recent hash rate highs not only that but consider that only two entities that were exposed to terror and three arrows capital have collapsed recall that there were nearly two dozen exposed entities and we're still getting news about some of these running into serious trouble never mind all the cryptos that 3ac could soon sell if you're wondering when the current recovery rally could end my bets are on mid to late september when ethereum's merge is expected to occur and when the federal reserve will return from its summer holiday with what's likely to be a fresh rate hike to fight inflation speaking of which the autumn is also when many parts of the world could start to face skyrocketing energy costs in anticipation of oil and gas shortages over the winter something that would almost certainly do serious damage to assets across the board say for oil gas and the us dollar of course europe is the elephant in the room in this regard and if you're wondering how it ended up in this energy situation you can find out using the link in the description and

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed