Joseph Carlson, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall

The window it was checked over

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

What was said around it

tightening is leading to companies having worse performance and he believes the FED will eventually have to address this and then of course again uh you know many businesses and certainly many individuals have the benefit of fixed rate debt and uh that fixed rate debt certainly for companies and for for commercial real estate starts to roll off so I think there's a a risk of a hard Landing If the Fed doesn't start cutting rates you know pretty soon so you I think the market expects sometime middle of next year I think it's more likely probably as early as q1 so he believes a Fed is going to lower interest rates as close as q1 of next year now I of course can't say whether or not that's accurate and making macro predictions is very difficult but Bill Amman does have a good record of his macro predictions part of the reason that I focus on companies that have very low debt they have very low leverage and they have incredibly resilient business models is specifically for all the changes of interest rate they don't have a huge impact on these type of companies they'll have some secondary impact on companies like Inuit with small businesses or spending in the overall economy with MasterCard but

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