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Graham Stephan: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Jun 1, 2022, at 0:29 in the video.

What was said
Graham Stephan

@grahamstephan

“the fednier's another 50 basis point rate hike in both June and July”
Watch at 0:29It’s Over: Why The Middle Class Is Financially Screwed
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

1%

Jun 1, 2022

Reading at close

5.25%

Jun 1, 2023

Change

+4.25 pp

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jun 1, 2023, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 425 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Correct

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%201920202021202220222023Said on Jun 1, 2022
−2%0%2%4%6%2019202020222023Said on Jun 1, 2022

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Correct1%1.75%Jul 1, 2022+0.75 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct1%2.5%Aug 30, 2022+1.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct1%4%Nov 28, 2022+3.00 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct1%5.25%Jun 1, 2023+4.25 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct1%4.5%May 31, 2025+3.50 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——May 31, 2027——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 1.75% on Jul 1, 2022, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 2.50% on Aug 30, 2022, a net change of +1.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 150 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 4.00% on Nov 28, 2022, a net change of +3.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 300 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 5.25% on Jun 1, 2023, a net change of +4.25 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 425 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 1.00% at the start of the window and 4.50% on May 31, 2025, a net change of +3.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 450 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes May 31, 2027.

What was said around it

usually when I see a mistake or something that shouldn't be happening I like to call it out and share my thoughts because investing is something I take extremely seriously and today is no exception during a time where investor sentiment has fallen to extreme fear it's all but confirmed that we're very likely to head towards a recession and unfortunately according to his study the vast majority of investors are already making a huge mistake and quite literally doing the exact opposite of what they should be if they want to make money this comes at the same time that the fednier's another 50 basis point rate hike in both June and July earnings are getting worse with Morgan Stanley warning of another 10 pullback and a wild turkey is attacking people in DC while multiple agencies are in Pursuit and one man protected himself with the rolled up plastic fence yes that is a real story anyway let's talk about the current state of the market the impact of a potential recession coming soon whether or not housing values are falling as fast as Millennials would like and then finally we'll address the mistake that the vast majority of investors are currently making without even know knowing it and it's

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed