Callsight
ENVI Tiếng Việt
Get signals

Joseph Carlson: Fed policy rate will rise

Said on Feb 15, 2023, at 30:55 in the video.

What was said
Joseph Carlson

@josephcarlsonshow

“I think as of right now if I had a guess I would see more interest rate hikes in the future”
Watch at 30:555 Quality Dividend Stocks I'm Buying Now | Joseph Carlson Ep. 305
PredictionFed policy ratewill riseChecked at fixed windows, from 30 days to 5 years
What happenedafter 1 year
Correct

Reading when said

4.75%

Feb 15, 2023

Reading at close

5.5%

Feb 15, 2024

Change

+0.75 pp

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Feb 15, 2024, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

30 days

Incorrect

90 days

Correct

180 days

Correct

1 year

Correct

Details and evidenceReport a problem

The window it was checked over

Fed policy rateWindow checkedRecession (NBER)
−2%0%2%4%6%202020202021202220232024Said on Feb 15, 2023
−2%0%2%4%6%2020202120232024Said on Feb 15, 2023

Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.

Result at every window

All windows are shown, so none is picked
Result at every window
WindowResultAt the startAt the endChangeBenchmark
30 daysR-FED v4Incorrect4.75%4.75%Mar 17, 20230.00 pp—
90 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.25%May 16, 2023+0.50 pp—
180 daysR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.5%Aug 14, 2023+0.75 pp—
1 yearR-FED v4Correct4.75%5.5%Feb 15, 2024+0.75 pp—
3 yearsR-FED v4Correct4.75%3.75%Feb 14, 2026−1.00 pp—
5 yearsR-FED v4Pending——Feb 14, 2028——
Why: 30 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 4.75% on Mar 17, 2023, a net change of 0.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 0 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 90 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.25% on May 16, 2023, a net change of +0.50 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 50 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 180 days

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Aug 14, 2023, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 1 year

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 5.50% on Feb 15, 2024, a net change of +0.75 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 3 years

The policy rate was 4.75% at the start of the window and 3.75% on Feb 14, 2026, a net change of −1.00 pp. The largest increase inside the window was 75 basis points. The stated threshold was 25 basis points.

Why: 5 years

Not yet resolved. The window closes Feb 14, 2028.

What was said around it

pressure on Jerome pal and then just today a we had the retail sales report for January that rebounded sharply in fact this went up to an incredible extent look at this Rebound in retail sales so we have all this really positive economic news complicating drone Pal's goal he's trying to slow down the economy and this economy just does not want to slow down inflation's being stubborn people are finding jobs and read inflation's being stubborn people are finding jobs and retail sales are growing not good news if you're trying to slow down the economy so I think as of right now if I had a guess I would see more interest rate hikes in the future that could change if we get some really bad economic news but everything right now shows a very strong economy so for now it looks like we're going to have higher interest rates for longer putting more downward pressure on stocks and I think a lot of the recent rally in the equity markets it may be short-lived so that's all for now I hope you enjoyed the episode I'll have more follow-ups later this week so make sure you subscribed if you have and and also follow the Joseph Carlson after hours Channel I have a video coming out later this week on all

What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.

See all

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”

Sep 3, 2026

Relayed

Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”

Jun 17, 2026

Relayed

Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated

“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”

Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year

Not verifiable

Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall

“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”

Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days

Incorrect so far · 90 days

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed

Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise

“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”

May 26, 2026

Relayed