“the markets expect rates to be at the end of the year one month ago we had a 91% chance of three
rate cuts and today it's only 20%”Coin Bureau, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will fall
Said on Jun 2, 2025, at 7:14 in the video.
The window it was checked over
Federal funds target range, upper limit: Federal Reserve Board via FRED, figures as first published. The shaded span is the window the call was checked over; grey bands are recessions.
Result at every window
All windows are shown, so none is pickedSomebody else's forecast — not scored
What was said around it
that Wednesday evening and they showed that the Fed was still they were acknowledging there were some difficult trade-offs in the coming coming months in the form of rising inflation alongside rising unemployment and you can see the probabilities here for the Fed uh interest rate uh in December according to the CME Fed rate watch and what's interesting is you'll note the light blue is where we were a month ago and the dark blue is where we are currently and you see the entire distribution shifting uh to where uh the markets expect rates to be at the end of the year one month ago we had a 91% chance of three rate cuts and today it's only 20% so it's pretty crazy so rate cuts still still just not a thing not a thing no um something else that potentially could have impacted on the Bitcoin price was the you know this the the Bitcoin conference now if you've been following the Bitcoin conference over the past few years you know it generally tends to mark a bit of a top and then Bitcoin starts to fall and indeed um some of the attendees at the conference in this picture if you'll notice the guy in the with the arrow pointed him ah yes a serial offender
What a person said is shown in their own words and is never translated. The link goes to the exact second in the video.
More on Fed policy rate
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“the market is now pricing in more than a 60% chance that on September 16th, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points in addition to buying”
Sep 3, 2026
Graham Stephan, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“they're now expecting interest rates to increase a little bit in 2026 before falling back down again in 2027 and once again in 2028.”
Jun 17, 2026
Andrei JikhFed policy rate— no direction stated
“I think we already know what he's going to do, which is nothing.”
Jun 15, 2026 · after 1 year
Graham StephanFed policy ratewill fall
“Instead, it's quietly going to happen through pressure on the Federal Reserve and lower interest rates to the point where inflation exceeds it, eroding the purchasing power on everyone's money.”
Jun 1, 2026 · after 90 days
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“The stock market thinks that there's going to be a rate increase by January 2027. the odds of a rate increase are above 70% and going up.”
May 26, 2026
Andrei Jikh, relaying another source: Fed policy rate will rise
“Because right now, the market is predicting a rate increase by January 2027. In fact, we are over 70% odds that interest rates will go up, which is the opposite of what everyone thought would happen.”
May 26, 2026